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What I’m suggesting is not, however, a government-sponsored think tank for global commerce. The Department of Economic Statecraft should be staffed and run by those in our country with the most impressive resumes in the private sector. They should be given the tools of government to serve the business community they came from. Presidents have long recruited business leaders to join White House economic councils and working groups, and to informally offer their advice, but it’s time to go beyond that into actual executive and policy powers.If you’ve kept your shirt dry while canoeing the rivers of our current presidential campaign, it’s likely that you’ve been skilled enough to avoid the logjams and snags of “dishonesty” and “lies” that the parties and press have flung into the water. While it’s true that politicians and their campaigns and their ads routinely lie — I hear no disagreement on that point, so I’ll continue — never have politicians and the press expressed such indignation at campaign exaggerations, fibs and falsehoods.
With much critical infrastructure still out, many gas stations don’t have electricity to pump gas, and most of the rest — at least in New York and New Jersey — have sold out, as people filled up not only their cars but any other vessels they could find. Gasoline is precious right now: it powers generators which pump out flooded buildings, as well as powering the one form of transportation which is capable of getting stuff from Brooklyn or New Jersey into Manhattan. As for when new supplies might arrive, that’s extremely vague, but the seems to be Saturday.
Yet her appointment doesn’t address the wider issues that are still at play. If, as a user, you were unhappy with Facebook’s policies – be it privacy issues or inadequate information about changes to the site –?or, as a stockholder, you were unhappy about a and a lack of communication from Facebook during the weeks that followed, then Sandberg’s appointment to the board won’t make much of a difference to you.Is it possible in the year of our Lord 2012 that leadership still isn’t well understood? In 2012, despite business journalism’s fetishization of Steve Jobs, the most successful leader ever, whose apotheosis was Walter Isaacson’s doorstop, Steve Jobs, a biography of the half-Syrian, bearded man who built the world’s most valuable company, brick by brick, and found himself, like an earlier CEO of sorts, with legions of devoted apostles, some powerful enemies, and an inextinguishable legend? Is it possible, despite the endless streams of management self-help articles burbling out of Fast Company, Inc., Harvard Business Review, Businessweek, Fortune and the blogs of droves of self-appointed leadership gurus, we need more advice? And is it possible despite the emails – so many emails, Jesus wept – those emails that aggregate all this content using algorithms and intern labor, and slice it up so that the middle manager in Minnesota and the lawyer in Los Angeles and the new media marketer in New York are all .0058% more likely to click through to a relevant article? Is it possible, really possible, the answer to our prayers is another book on leadership?
But what’s missing here is the actual mechanism by which the Fed will change expectations about the state of the economy. In the latest issue of the Milken Review, which is stupidly behind a registration wall, Clark Johnson has a 10-page (idiotically enormous 46MB PDF alert) complaining about how the Fed isn’t doing enough to jumpstart growth. It’s full of stuff like this:
Carter’s response to Thaler is to say that it’s “a solution that would, of course, ‘cost’ the government more” than it’s spending right now in tax expenditures on the charitable deduction. But again, he doesn’t explain why this should be the case; it’s certainly not self-evident. A universal, refundable 15% tax credit would be a lot more democratic than the current deduction, and allow all Americans to take advantage of it, rather than only the minority who itemize their taxes. And if it did indeed end up costing more than the current system, with its deductions of 35% or more, that would only go to prove how badly skewed towards the rich the current system is.
I can see why he said that. The debtor in question was Anglo Irish Bank, and the exit consent in this case was particularly evil: exiting bondholders gave the bank (which at that point had already been nationalized) the right to buy back all of its old bonds at a price of ?0.01 per ?1000 in principal amount. Assenagon Asset Management owned just over ?17 million of bonds, and didn’t participate in the bond exchange; shortly thereafter, it found all of its bonds redeemed in return for a payment of just ?170.
If I was a corporate leader reading this, I’d happily take away the message that successful corporate leadership is the best way of improving the state of the world — even better than pure philanthropy. And I’d be greatly encouraged by Altman, who says this, in a on my post:
It’s a very fair criticism. But Murphy’s not really competing with the FT and the WSJ here: he’s competing with expensive news wires and free daily brokerage reports. Many of those are very strong in emerging markets. Murphy is asking his overstretched journalists (just one person for all of Latin America, for instance) to tell financial professionals something they don’t already know: that’s a tall order.
First, there is a proper division of labor between those who develop theories and those who meet day to day challenges.? It is progress, not regress, that today we have physicists who conceive theories and do experiments and civil engineers who build bridges.? This work was done by the same people centuries ago.? In the same way, it represents progress through the division of labor that it is no longer true that academics are the people best informed about the evolution of next quarter’s GDP?as was the case even in the 1960s.? While there are exceptions, much of the progress in modern medicine comes from scientific research done by people who do not on a regular basis see patients.? Watson and Crick would have been slowed down, not helped, if they had spent time with MD’s.
I’m no great fan of VCs, while I’ve been a lover of magazines all my life. But the overwhelming majority of my media consumption these days is digital, and magazines in general are beginning to seem a bit slow and uninspired. I go to the airport newsstand because I know I’ll be asked to turn my electronic devices off — and even then, more often than not, I end up buying nothing.
There is no algorithm which can tell you who’s going to be a successful entrepreneur and who isn’t. Some college dropouts are college dropouts; other college dropouts are Steve Jobs, or Bill Gates, or Mark Zuckerberg. Being dyslexic is generally not a great thing when it comes to total lifetime income, and yet dyslexics are massively overrepresented among highly-successful CEOs. If you’re looking for outliers — and successful entrepreneurs, pretty much by definition, are all outliers — then you can’t really start generalizing.
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The other source recommended by Dalberg is the universally-admired Paul Farmer. But his view of Haiti is, I think, closer to Reitman’s than it is to the professional-aid-consultant nexus of Dalberg and CHF. Farmer recently that “if you look at Haiti, many billions of dollars have gone into development aid there that have not been effective”.
As a result, by all accounts, Americans have much less money in offshore bank accounts than citizens of most other countries. Reliable data on such things is impossible to come by, of course, but all of the numbers in Davidson’s piece are trying to measure a total amount in offshore centers, rather than the amount that can credibly be considered to be American in some way.
Blodget’s VIP status on the floor of the NYSE today shows how far he’s come from the dot-bust days of his disgrace. Wall Street doesn’t much care about that any more — and neither does it object to TBI’s sensationalistic tendencies. Wall Street has always been a place of short memories and short attention spans. And Blodget knows just how to appeal to that audience.Investor Chamath Palihapitiya wrote a strongly-worded letter to Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky yesterday, which promptly got .
Raising taxes on small businesses in and of itself won’t help the rate of small-business creation — but it’s actually unlikely to hurt it that much, either. (And interestingly, taxes paid by an employer in New York are actually than those paid in Norway.) What would help would be a much stronger social safety net, so that someone who starts a company doesn’t need to fear a life of poverty in the event that she fails. Encouraging small businesses necessarily means encouraging failure — but the cost of failure is very high, in the US. Instead, we spend far too much time worrying about tax rates on the successful.
The central irony of financial crisis is that while it is caused by too much confidence, too much borrowing and lending and too much spending, it can only be resolved with more confidence, more borrowing and lending, and more spending.? Most policy failures in the United States stem from a failure to appreciate this truism and therefore to take steps that would have been productive pre-crisis but are counterproductive now, with the economy severely constrained by lack of confidence and demand.
For one thing, Bair reveals, Tim Geithner involved himself quite deeply in Basel III negotiations. Bair can’t stand Geithner, and ascribes malign intent to everything he does. Geithner asks questions about Basel III without explicitly saying what his own opinion is? “It wasn’t clear whether Tim was trying to build consensus among the U.S. regulators or trying to stir the pot.” Geithner agrees to push for higher capital standards — exactly what Bair wanted all along? Well, that’s just his way of trying to marginalize her:
That’s quite a different story from the one the Delaware firms told in an in Chancery Court and a simultaneous petition for an in Manhattan federal court. (The petition and accompanying affidavits are, unfortunately, under seal.) The Delaware firms, as Gretchen Morgenson , accused BofA of settling on the cheap with the firms in the New York case, which hadn’t put anywhere near as much work into the litigation as they had. The bank deliberately excluded them from talks, the Delaware firms said, so it could collude with firms that had ridden sidecar in discovery in the consolidated federal-court securities litigation in New York.The death of an Englishman in Chongqing has acquired all the intrigue of a John le Carré novel with none of its charms. Despite the occasionally romantic descriptions of the disgraced leader Bo Xilai as a charismatic man of the people challenging the prerogatives of Beijing’s bureaucratic leadership, this is a story without heroes, in which no one’s hands are clean. For all the elements of murder, mystery and missing fortunes occupying the Western press, in China today the focus of the country’s political and economic leaders is on the cascading power struggle that is in progress and what it holds for the future management of the world’s second-largest economy.
If you want an indication of just how unreliable and unrepresentative the $7,860 number is, you just need to stay on the very same page of the Aon Hewitt report, which says that 27.6% of participants have a loan. If Litan and Singer think that the $7,860 figure is reliable, why not use the 27.6% number as well? If they did that, then the total number of 401(k) loans outstanding would be $7,860 per loan, times 72 million participants, times 27.6% of participants with a loan. Which comes to $156 billion.
Look, this is the height of a very tough primary campaign that Mitt and I were in. ?Time after time after time, which we don’t show, I showed my respect and appreciation for the fact that he was a successful Republican governor working with Democrat legislature. ?The fact is that Bain, yes, thousands were laid off. ?But also many more thousands were hired.
A lone member of the 10-person commission dissented. Lawyer Richard Emery wrote that the panel had issued “a diluted report that is an exercise in evasion.” He also pointed out:
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MR. GREGORY: But can I, can I add into the mix here, in this week of this emotionally-charged discussion, came Senator Jim Webb, a Democrat, Virginia, who wrote an op-ed piece that raised a lot of eyebrows. We’ll put the headline on the screen: “Diversity and the Myth of White Privilege,” the subhead, “America still owes a debt to its black citizens, but government programs to help all `people of color’ are unfair. They should end.”
And coming up, our Meet the Candidate series continues as the race for the White House heats up.? One of the first candidates to get in the race approaches a critical test in Iowa next month.? Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty joins me live in studio right after this break.
MR. GREGORY:? And it’s interesting, David Brooks.? I mean, finding the ideological fault lines here are difficult between left and right, frankly.? I mean, you had Senator McCain make the point that a timeline for withdrawal, which the president has committed to, which is a
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Outlook: Hegar sprinted to an early lead in fundraising but none of the Republicans is a household name, except maybe Medina. She drew 19 percent of the vote in the 2010 GOP primary for governor. Collier tells voters they need a non-Republican “watchdog.”
His decision to avoid any direct military action in Libya except air cover to protect civilians was accompanied by the devastating quote, which The New Yorker magazine’s Ryan Lizza attributed to an unnamed White House official, that the administration was “leading from behind” by letting other countries take the lead, with U.S. behind-the-scenes backing.
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On top of that, rumor has it that MBIA is commuting deals, most recently with a UK fund called Protium. Essentially, Protium held about $4.5 billion of debt which was insured by MBIA, and on which MBIA was making occasional payments as and when they came due. It negotiated with MBIA and got the monoline to make one big payment, in return for wiping out any future obligations. The deal’s good for Protium, which gets lots of money up front and which no longer needs to worry that MBIA won’t be around to make the payments it’s obliged to make. And it’s good for MBIA, too, which pays out much less, in total, than it would if it left the agreement untouched. What’s more, if MBIA manages to put back bonds to the originating banks, it could actually make a substantial profit on the transaction, with the loss being transferred to the banks.
What I’m suggesting is not, however, a government-sponsored think tank for global commerce. The Department of Economic Statecraft should be staffed and run by those in our country with the most impressive resumes in the private sector. They should be given the tools of government to serve the business community they came from. Presidents have long recruited business leaders to join White House economic councils and working groups, and to informally offer their advice, but it’s time to go beyond that into actual executive and policy powers.If you’ve kept your shirt dry while canoeing the rivers of our current presidential campaign, it’s likely that you’ve been skilled enough to avoid the logjams and snags of “dishonesty” and “lies” that the parties and press have flung into the water. While it’s true that politicians and their campaigns and their ads routinely lie — I hear no disagreement on that point, so I’ll continue — never have politicians and the press expressed such indignation at campaign exaggerations, fibs and falsehoods.
With much critical infrastructure still out, many gas stations don’t have electricity to pump gas, and most of the rest — at least in New York and New Jersey — have sold out, as people filled up not only their cars but any other vessels they could find. Gasoline is precious right now: it powers generators which pump out flooded buildings, as well as powering the one form of transportation which is capable of getting stuff from Brooklyn or New Jersey into Manhattan. As for when new supplies might arrive, that’s extremely vague, but the seems to be Saturday.
Yet her appointment doesn’t address the wider issues that are still at play. If, as a user, you were unhappy with Facebook’s policies – be it privacy issues or inadequate information about changes to the site –?or, as a stockholder, you were unhappy about a and a lack of communication from Facebook during the weeks that followed, then Sandberg’s appointment to the board won’t make much of a difference to you.Is it possible in the year of our Lord 2012 that leadership still isn’t well understood? In 2012, despite business journalism’s fetishization of Steve Jobs, the most successful leader ever, whose apotheosis was Walter Isaacson’s doorstop, Steve Jobs, a biography of the half-Syrian, bearded man who built the world’s most valuable company, brick by brick, and found himself, like an earlier CEO of sorts, with legions of devoted apostles, some powerful enemies, and an inextinguishable legend? Is it possible, despite the endless streams of management self-help articles burbling out of Fast Company, Inc., Harvard Business Review, Businessweek, Fortune and the blogs of droves of self-appointed leadership gurus, we need more advice? And is it possible despite the emails – so many emails, Jesus wept – those emails that aggregate all this content using algorithms and intern labor, and slice it up so that the middle manager in Minnesota and the lawyer in Los Angeles and the new media marketer in New York are all .0058% more likely to click through to a relevant article? Is it possible, really possible, the answer to our prayers is another book on leadership?
But what’s missing here is the actual mechanism by which the Fed will change expectations about the state of the economy. In the latest issue of the Milken Review, which is stupidly behind a registration wall, Clark Johnson has a 10-page (idiotically enormous 46MB PDF alert) complaining about how the Fed isn’t doing enough to jumpstart growth. It’s full of stuff like this:
Carter’s response to Thaler is to say that it’s “a solution that would, of course, ‘cost’ the government more” than it’s spending right now in tax expenditures on the charitable deduction. But again, he doesn’t explain why this should be the case; it’s certainly not self-evident. A universal, refundable 15% tax credit would be a lot more democratic than the current deduction, and allow all Americans to take advantage of it, rather than only the minority who itemize their taxes. And if it did indeed end up costing more than the current system, with its deductions of 35% or more, that would only go to prove how badly skewed towards the rich the current system is.
I can see why he said that. The debtor in question was Anglo Irish Bank, and the exit consent in this case was particularly evil: exiting bondholders gave the bank (which at that point had already been nationalized) the right to buy back all of its old bonds at a price of ?0.01 per ?1000 in principal amount. Assenagon Asset Management owned just over ?17 million of bonds, and didn’t participate in the bond exchange; shortly thereafter, it found all of its bonds redeemed in return for a payment of just ?170.
If I was a corporate leader reading this, I’d happily take away the message that successful corporate leadership is the best way of improving the state of the world — even better than pure philanthropy. And I’d be greatly encouraged by Altman, who says this, in a on my post:
It’s a very fair criticism. But Murphy’s not really competing with the FT and the WSJ here: he’s competing with expensive news wires and free daily brokerage reports. Many of those are very strong in emerging markets. Murphy is asking his overstretched journalists (just one person for all of Latin America, for instance) to tell financial professionals something they don’t already know: that’s a tall order.
First, there is a proper division of labor between those who develop theories and those who meet day to day challenges.? It is progress, not regress, that today we have physicists who conceive theories and do experiments and civil engineers who build bridges.? This work was done by the same people centuries ago.? In the same way, it represents progress through the division of labor that it is no longer true that academics are the people best informed about the evolution of next quarter’s GDP?as was the case even in the 1960s.? While there are exceptions, much of the progress in modern medicine comes from scientific research done by people who do not on a regular basis see patients.? Watson and Crick would have been slowed down, not helped, if they had spent time with MD’s.
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I’m no great fan of VCs, while I’ve been a lover of magazines all my life. But the overwhelming majority of my media consumption these days is digital, and magazines in general are beginning to seem a bit slow and uninspired. I go to the airport newsstand because I know I’ll be asked to turn my electronic devices off — and even then, more often than not, I end up buying nothing.
There is no algorithm which can tell you who’s going to be a successful entrepreneur and who isn’t. Some college dropouts are college dropouts; other college dropouts are Steve Jobs, or Bill Gates, or Mark Zuckerberg. Being dyslexic is generally not a great thing when it comes to total lifetime income, and yet dyslexics are massively overrepresented among highly-successful CEOs. If you’re looking for outliers — and successful entrepreneurs, pretty much by definition, are all outliers — then you can’t really start generalizing.
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The other source recommended by Dalberg is the universally-admired Paul Farmer. But his view of Haiti is, I think, closer to Reitman’s than it is to the professional-aid-consultant nexus of Dalberg and CHF. Farmer recently that “if you look at Haiti, many billions of dollars have gone into development aid there that have not been effective”.
As a result, by all accounts, Americans have much less money in offshore bank accounts than citizens of most other countries. Reliable data on such things is impossible to come by, of course, but all of the numbers in Davidson’s piece are trying to measure a total amount in offshore centers, rather than the amount that can credibly be considered to be American in some way.
Blodget’s VIP status on the floor of the NYSE today shows how far he’s come from the dot-bust days of his disgrace. Wall Street doesn’t much care about that any more — and neither does it object to TBI’s sensationalistic tendencies. Wall Street has always been a place of short memories and short attention spans. And Blodget knows just how to appeal to that audience.Investor Chamath Palihapitiya wrote a strongly-worded letter to Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky yesterday, which promptly got .
Raising taxes on small businesses in and of itself won’t help the rate of small-business creation — but it’s actually unlikely to hurt it that much, either. (And interestingly, taxes paid by an employer in New York are actually than those paid in Norway.) What would help would be a much stronger social safety net, so that someone who starts a company doesn’t need to fear a life of poverty in the event that she fails. Encouraging small businesses necessarily means encouraging failure — but the cost of failure is very high, in the US. Instead, we spend far too much time worrying about tax rates on the successful.
The central irony of financial crisis is that while it is caused by too much confidence, too much borrowing and lending and too much spending, it can only be resolved with more confidence, more borrowing and lending, and more spending.? Most policy failures in the United States stem from a failure to appreciate this truism and therefore to take steps that would have been productive pre-crisis but are counterproductive now, with the economy severely constrained by lack of confidence and demand.
For one thing, Bair reveals, Tim Geithner involved himself quite deeply in Basel III negotiations. Bair can’t stand Geithner, and ascribes malign intent to everything he does. Geithner asks questions about Basel III without explicitly saying what his own opinion is? “It wasn’t clear whether Tim was trying to build consensus among the U.S. regulators or trying to stir the pot.” Geithner agrees to push for higher capital standards — exactly what Bair wanted all along? Well, that’s just his way of trying to marginalize her:
That’s quite a different story from the one the Delaware firms told in an in Chancery Court and a simultaneous petition for an in Manhattan federal court. (The petition and accompanying affidavits are, unfortunately, under seal.) The Delaware firms, as Gretchen Morgenson , accused BofA of settling on the cheap with the firms in the New York case, which hadn’t put anywhere near as much work into the litigation as they had. The bank deliberately excluded them from talks, the Delaware firms said, so it could collude with firms that had ridden sidecar in discovery in the consolidated federal-court securities litigation in New York.The death of an Englishman in Chongqing has acquired all the intrigue of a John le Carré novel with none of its charms. Despite the occasionally romantic descriptions of the disgraced leader Bo Xilai as a charismatic man of the people challenging the prerogatives of Beijing’s bureaucratic leadership, this is a story without heroes, in which no one’s hands are clean. For all the elements of murder, mystery and missing fortunes occupying the Western press, in China today the focus of the country’s political and economic leaders is on the cascading power struggle that is in progress and what it holds for the future management of the world’s second-largest economy.
The Red Cross can’t do that: it’s simply too big. This passage, from MacNicol’s piece, is key:
If you want an indication of just how unreliable and unrepresentative the $7,860 number is, you just need to stay on the very same page of the Aon Hewitt report, which says that 27.6% of participants have a loan. If Litan and Singer think that the $7,860 figure is reliable, why not use the 27.6% number as well? If they did that, then the total number of 401(k) loans outstanding would be $7,860 per loan, times 72 million participants, times 27.6% of participants with a loan. Which comes to $156 billion.
Look, this is the height of a very tough primary campaign that Mitt and I were in. ?Time after time after time, which we don’t show, I showed my respect and appreciation for the fact that he was a successful Republican governor working with Democrat legislature. ?The fact is that Bain, yes, thousands were laid off. ?But also many more thousands were hired.
A lone member of the 10-person commission dissented. Lawyer Richard Emery wrote that the panel had issued “a diluted report that is an exercise in evasion.” He also pointed out:
MR. GREGORY: And they both are doing that in this case.
Well, and isn’t this an issue, General, I mean, you have all these private contractors having access to this kind of classified–
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MR. GREGORY:? …and you have the decision to make an address…
REP. SESSIONS:? They are…
just underscore that China has been extremely positive and productive in
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There’s still–
MR. GREGORY: But can I, can I add into the mix here, in this week of this emotionally-charged discussion, came Senator Jim Webb, a Democrat, Virginia, who wrote an op-ed piece that raised a lot of eyebrows. We’ll put the headline on the screen: “Diversity and the Myth of White Privilege,” the subhead, “America still owes a debt to its black citizens, but government programs to help all `people of color’ are unfair. They should end.”
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SEN. GRAHAM:? Thank you very much.
And coming up, our Meet the Candidate series continues as the race for the White House heats up.? One of the first candidates to get in the race approaches a critical test in Iowa next month.? Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty joins me live in studio right after this break.
Lewis said Republican Gov. Chris Christie urged him not to get into the race.
MR. GREGORY:? And it’s interesting, David Brooks.? I mean, finding the ideological fault lines here are difficult between left and right, frankly.? I mean, you had Senator McCain make the point that a timeline for withdrawal, which the president has committed to, which is a
“As a resilient nation, we will carry on,” he told Americans on the eve of the anniversary of the attacks.
The glory of modern science is that, while only a very few can understand its particular theories, anyone can understand its peculiar approach – it is simply the perpetual assertion of experience over authority, and of debate over dogma.
Prince Charles, Mr Cameron and Mr Susman laid wreaths at the memorial, which also provided the backdrop for an evening concert.
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At Ground Zero he joined his predecessor, George W Bush, to visit the memorial. With bowed heads, they touched inscriptions.
Politicians have condemned the violence, which has flared at the height of the loyalist marching season.
It concluded there was no case to answer.
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Violence had been feared, and the police presence was heavy, but the march passed peacefully.
But then, as The Economist wrote: “The sheer magnitude of the human tragedy of [WWII] puts it in a class of its own, and its relative closeness to the present day makes claims on the collective memory that more remote horrors cannot.”
That's why, if you spend sufficient time listening to these Panglosses or Cassandras, you'll notice that more often than not, they're entirely wrong – most spectacularly so in their failure to anticipate the financial collapse of 2008.
Cubans need permission to leave the island. It is a deeply resented restriction. For the moment, though, hopes that Congress will take the initiative appear to be based more on wishful thinking than concrete evidence. A new leader emerges?
PPE, which stands for Politics, Philosophy and Economics, is the core curriculum of our current belief system, and while – as George Osborne's elevation bears witness – it is not mandatory for cabinet ministers to have followed this course, a large minority of them have, and those that haven't will have got their E somewhere else – because it's the E which is really important, the PP being there simply to sugar the tasteless communion wafer.
Back in 1960 those women were a tiny proportion of the working population – just 3.5%. And the number who admitted to earning more was probably a lot less than that.
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Mike, the Texan, said he thought that this might be true, and instanced the fact that the man who once plied a trade driving tourists around the plaza in an open-topped Lincoln limousine, seemed to have hung up his ignition key.
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He accused Mr Hunt of trying to dodge responsibility and coming up with “half-baked plans”.
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